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  #381  
Old 28.11.2010, 23:19
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Re: What if? Consequences of expulsion initiative being accepted?

I chose "suggest" on purpose, since I haven't taken the time to go and sift through that stuff. To be honest, I'm pi$$ed off enough at kids with Balkan accents picking pointless fights with me on the tram or guys from warmer climates aggressively chatting me up, sometimes even getting physical while doing so that I give the numbers the benefit of the doubt. Why should I go out of my way to find information that makes THEIR life better?
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  #382  
Old 28.11.2010, 23:26
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Re: What if? Consequences of expulsion initiative being accepted?

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Oh great. Citizens turn off your brains and let the government do your thinking for you.

Sounds like a recipe for a fascist totalitarian state.

Wrong country bud. We're in Switzerland.
Hey . . . I'm not necessarily saying the system's better. Someone was questioning my claim that members of a government or more educated than the general population. I already said that representative government came about in an age when people were less educated, so that model might no longer be valid.

As for fascist totalitarianism . . . er no. We're talking about the kind of democracy that exists in most developed countries.
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  #383  
Old 28.11.2010, 23:28
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Re: What if? Consequences of expulsion initiative being accepted?

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See post #376 above with a link to the official Swiss government statistics.
Which show that crimes committed by foreigners - minus the EU nationals who were excluded by this initiative - are in rel. % at the same level as Swiss nationals...
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  #384  
Old 28.11.2010, 23:33
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Re: What if? Consequences of expulsion initiative being accepted?

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So, if they are so well educated, how did they get the country into such a pickle? Sometimes common sense is worth more than academic theories and a burning desire to play "Risk" for real....
Yes yes, the elites are out of touch with common sense values (like being suspicious of funny foreigners).

As for economy, maybe should run it along the lines of the X Factor or something . . . nightly telephone polls to set fiscal policy!

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  #385  
Old 28.11.2010, 23:37
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Re: What if? Consequences of expulsion initiative being accepted?

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Yes yes, the elites are out of touch with common sense values (like being suspicious of funny foreigners).

As for economy, maybe should run it along the lines of the X Factor or something . . . nightly telephone polls to set fiscal policy!

No need to get snotty...the fact is that education is not enough if you are lacking a moral and ethical compass, as many politicians seem to nowadays. In too many cases politicians are totally out of touch with the population they represent. Direct democracy like in Switzerland ensures that politicians are reminded at least 4 times a year who exactly it was that voted for them...
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  #386  
Old 28.11.2010, 23:42
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Re: What if? Consequences of expulsion initiative being accepted?

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Which show that crimes committed by foreigners - minus the EU nationals who were excluded by this initiative - are in rel. % at the same level as Swiss nationals...
I'm really bad at maths so I don't want to be too definite about this but based on the second set of numbers, around 6 million Swiss nationals committed around 42'000 crimes, and 1,75 million non-Swiss committed around 23'000 crimes. So that's 13 crimes per 1000 people for the foreigners and around 7 crimes per 1000 Swiss. For the violent crimes, it's 2.4 per 1000 for the Swiss and 6.1 per 1000 for the foreigners.
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  #387  
Old 28.11.2010, 23:50
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Re: What if? Consequences of expulsion initiative being accepted?

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No need to get snotty...the fact is that education is not enough if you are lacking a moral and ethical compass, as many politicians seem to nowadays. In too many cases politicians are totally out of touch with the population they represent. Direct democracy like in Switzerland ensures that politicians are reminded at least 4 times a year who exactly it was that voted for them...
I'm not arguing against direct democracy. I'm simply suggesting there will be different results and that will mainly be down to differences in levels of education. Those who've been to university will be far less likely to be xenophobic.
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  #388  
Old 28.11.2010, 23:56
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Re: What if? Consequences of expulsion initiative being accepted?

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I'm really bad at maths so I don't want to be too definite about this but based on the second set of numbers, around 6 million Swiss nationals committed around 42'000 crimes, and 1,75 million non-Swiss committed around 23'000 crimes. So that's 13 crimes per 1000 people for the foreigners and around 7 crimes per 1000 Swiss. For the violent crimes, it's 2.4 per 1000 for the Swiss and 6.1 per 1000 for the foreigners.
That makes the SVP's statistics false. They said foreigners comitted 70% of all crimes, in reality it was a bit more than 35%.
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  #389  
Old 28.11.2010, 23:58
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Re: What if? Consequences of expulsion initiative being accepted?

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That makes the SVP's statistics false. They said foreigners comitted 70% of all crimes, in reality it was a bit more than 35%.
Maybe they did some magic factoring in percentages compared to the total number. I don't really know, I generally don't vote what they propose anyway as I find them very tiresome. But the numbers do appear to show that the "rate of crime per foreigner" is higher than it is per Swiss.

ETA: Still with the caveat of my limited maths ability, but if it's 13 to 7 per thousand people, isn't that 65% of all crimes and, at 6.1 to 2.4, 72% of the violent crimes? Which would equal 70% if you round up the average.
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  #390  
Old 29.11.2010, 00:08
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Re: What if? Consequences of expulsion initiative being accepted?

The whole thing was tiresome and I, for one, was almost convinced the SVP's initiative will work out. There are some facts (for sure) and it was very easy for them to play their cards.

Later edit: 23000 crimes out of a total of 65000 represent around 35%.

Last edited by greenmount; 29.11.2010 at 00:20.
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  #391  
Old 29.11.2010, 00:22
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Re: What if? Consequences of expulsion initiative being accepted?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11857438

The vote passed then?
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  #392  
Old 29.11.2010, 00:25
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Re: What if? Consequences of expulsion initiative being accepted?

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The whole thing was tiresome and I, for one, was almost convinced the SVP's initiative will work out. There are some facts (for sure) and it was very easy for them to play their cards.

Later edit: 23000 crimes out of a total of 65000 represent around 35%.
But the point is that those crimes were committed by a much smaller pool of people, no?
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  #393  
Old 29.11.2010, 00:31
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Re: What if? Consequences of expulsion initiative being accepted?

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But the point is that those crimes were committed by a much smaller pool of people, no?
Yes, that's why it played right in their hands.
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  #394  
Old 29.11.2010, 00:40
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Re: What if? Consequences of expulsion initiative being accepted?

I guess that the wording "Relative to the number of people per nationality in this country, 70% of all crimes are committed by those who do not have Swiss nationality" was just not as catchy on the poster.

So if the numbers are right, then the argument is more of an ideological one rather than a case of "the numbers are made up". I can't remember who said this but I'm not so sure other states would not want to do the same thing if they could.
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  #395  
Old 29.11.2010, 01:25
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Re: What if? Consequences of expulsion initiative being accepted?

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I'm really bad at maths so I don't want to be too definite about this but based on the second set of numbers, around 6 million Swiss nationals committed around 42'000 crimes, and 1,75 million non-Swiss committed around 23'000 crimes. So that's 13 crimes per 1000 people for the foreigners and around 7 crimes per 1000 Swiss. For the violent crimes, it's 2.4 per 1000 for the Swiss and 6.1 per 1000 for the foreigners.
(Those are the overall figures - the numbers of violations of non-Swiss are so high mostly due to breaches of permit issues.)


If you look at the stats, which detail the crimes, covered by this initiative:

- Crimes committed by Swiss nationals: 2'975

- Crimes committed by non-Swiss, ex-EU: 924
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  #396  
Old 29.11.2010, 02:42
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Re: What if? Consequences of expulsion initiative being accepted?

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Wallis voted YES to initiative....surprising.
Neuchatel voted NO
Vaud says NO
Bern says yes
BS is less conservative and more open than BL, so not surprising that they voted NO
What is surprising about the deeply conservative Canton of Wallis/Valais ?


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It seems it's again a "Swiss-german part wins" stuff .....

to put it the other way round, 20% minorities generally, around the globe, are not deciding the fate of their nations

Last edited by Wollishofener; 29.11.2010 at 04:21.
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  #397  
Old 29.11.2010, 02:51
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Re: What if? Consequences of expulsion initiative being accepted?

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I've just heard by word of mouth that it is indeed a yes. Checking on the 20min site appears to confirm this.

http://www.20min.ch/news/dossier/abs...ommen-24310285 sorry german only.

I've also heard from a "politically active" associate that there's going to be a "demonstration" at Helvetiaplatz tonight. How big I've no idea - this is afterall rumour, but my scource is generally correct, so I'd avoid Helvetiaplatz and Langstrasse tonight.

a YES as expected, but with 53% ways lower than the forecast 65% plus. Had the Gegenvorschlag been put up earlier, the result would have been different. But, let's be clear, the Gegenvorschlag in reality was just a milder version of the Initiative. What matters is that the Initiative even if getting a clear YES failed to get a triumphant yes. This may be legally irrelevant but psychologically it DOES matter !
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  #398  
Old 29.11.2010, 02:59
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Re: What if? Consequences of expulsion initiative being accepted?

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I'm curious to see how the government will put this up, and how will react other countries...
first of all the other countries. You possibly mean countries like the UK and Germany who long ago issued stuff like THIS

http://www.ukba.homeoffice.gov.uk/po...nrules/part13/

/www.123recht.net/article.asp?p=3&f=ratgeber_ausl%E4nderrecht_auswei sung&a=257&ccheck=1

or France, Netherlands, Spain and Italy whose legislation in reality for years has been far stricter than even that now approved initiative !
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  #399  
Old 29.11.2010, 03:18
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Re: What if? Consequences of expulsion initiative being accepted?

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Strange that the vote in Zürich was very close; 50:8% in favour. Strange because Zürich is the home of the extreme part of the SVP & one would have thought they commanded more support in their home base.
Let's put that inititiative aside, and tackle your idea. No, Zurich is NOT the home base of the SVP. The SVP for years on end failed to get even ONE person into the city government in Zurich. Zurich however is the cradle of the Swiss Social Democracy and so there is a lot of leftist support. The Blocherites have their strongholds in some rural villages in the Canton of Zurich, the Canton of Schaffhausen and the Canton of Graubünden.

Another point about your conclusions is the spiritual leader of the SVP. You have to see that what the difference is between Christoph Blocher and Alfred von Escher. The difference is that staunchly conservative Alfred von Escher, a top business tycoon, worked WITH Zurich, while Christoph Blocher worked AGAINST Zurich

Back to the initiative. It is clear that Zurich, by CH standards has a high crime rate, and it is equally clear that the "foreign" share is high. That a majority of the "foreign" share comes from NON-CH residents is fact, but is generally not realised by the average voter
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Old 29.11.2010, 03:22
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Re: What if? Consequences of expulsion initiative being accepted?

I am very surprised that the vote was not a lot higher against it.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11857438

It states that 60% of inmates in prison do not have Swiss Nationality.
One believes that non Swiss living in Switzerland is 20% of the population of Switzerland.
This would imply that the serious crime is certainly carried out by non Swiss.

I would believe that the vote in faviour of this would be a lot higher in a couple of years as the recession/economic crisis effects Europe.
I would actually say that Switzerland is very vulnerable as the Swiss people are very trusting.
I would also think that the Swiss regret having opened its borders (little passport control) with the EC and will probably regret its employment treaty with the EC.
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