Go Back   English Forum Switzerland > Help & tips > Transportation/driving  
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 22.04.2019, 16:33
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Nyon
Posts: 1,472
Groaned at 56 Times in 38 Posts
Thanked 1,344 Times in 687 Posts
bowlie has a reputation beyond reputebowlie has a reputation beyond reputebowlie has a reputation beyond reputebowlie has a reputation beyond repute
Price of petrol/gasoline

It appears the price of gas is about to go through the roof. Trump trying to cut Iran’s exports and the Iranians threatening to shut the straits of Hormuz.

Thats only about 20% of the world’s supply that will be cut off.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 22.04.2019, 17:40
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: Leimbach, Zürich
Posts: 5,032
Groaned at 294 Times in 231 Posts
Thanked 5,454 Times in 2,770 Posts
EdwinNL has a reputation beyond reputeEdwinNL has a reputation beyond reputeEdwinNL has a reputation beyond reputeEdwinNL has a reputation beyond reputeEdwinNL has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Price of petrol/gasoline

Quote:
View Post
It appears the price of gas is about to go through the roof. Trump trying to cut Iran’s exports and the Iranians threatening to shut the straits of Hormuz.

Thats only about 20% of the world’s supply that will be cut off.
It would eventually lead Iran in a war for which they do not have the materials to win it.

I recall sometime during the 80's Iran laid out mines in that territory and one of them struck an American vessel, after which America took down an Iranian warship in Iranian waters as retaliation which immediately changed the Iranian course.
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users would like to thank EdwinNL for this useful post:
  #3  
Old 22.04.2019, 18:03
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Nyon
Posts: 1,472
Groaned at 56 Times in 38 Posts
Thanked 1,344 Times in 687 Posts
bowlie has a reputation beyond reputebowlie has a reputation beyond reputebowlie has a reputation beyond reputebowlie has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Price of petrol/gasoline

Iran only has to threaten to close the straights and shipping will cease. They don’t actually have to do anything.

Saudi will be pissed.

Both sides are being idiots.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 22.04.2019, 18:09
st2lemans's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Lugano
Posts: 26,232
Groaned at 1,623 Times in 1,248 Posts
Thanked 30,404 Times in 14,512 Posts
st2lemans has a reputation beyond reputest2lemans has a reputation beyond reputest2lemans has a reputation beyond reputest2lemans has a reputation beyond reputest2lemans has a reputation beyond reputest2lemans has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Price of petrol/gasoline

Who cares?

Tom
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 22.04.2019, 18:16
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: Leimbach, Zürich
Posts: 5,032
Groaned at 294 Times in 231 Posts
Thanked 5,454 Times in 2,770 Posts
EdwinNL has a reputation beyond reputeEdwinNL has a reputation beyond reputeEdwinNL has a reputation beyond reputeEdwinNL has a reputation beyond reputeEdwinNL has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Price of petrol/gasoline

Quote:
View Post
Iran only has to threaten to close the straights and shipping will cease. They don’t actually have to do anything.

Saudi will be pissed.

Both sides are being idiots.
Euh...

Qatar, Iraq, Kuwait and Bahrain are 100% dependent on that strait, UAE and Saudi Arabia are largely depending on it.

World economy simply can't do without that strait being open. So Iran is going to close nothing. Truth is that if needed tankers will get military escort and if Iran attacks retaliations will be so huge that they either stop attacking and allow access again or risk their country going more down the drain than it has gone before in the last 100 years. Imho Iran is big mouthing but not stupid enough to pull these threats all the way to the end and other countries know this. They simply can't effort to do so. And even if they would we'll make them change their mind.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank EdwinNL for this useful post:
  #6  
Old 22.04.2019, 18:17
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: Leimbach, Zürich
Posts: 5,032
Groaned at 294 Times in 231 Posts
Thanked 5,454 Times in 2,770 Posts
EdwinNL has a reputation beyond reputeEdwinNL has a reputation beyond reputeEdwinNL has a reputation beyond reputeEdwinNL has a reputation beyond reputeEdwinNL has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Price of petrol/gasoline

Quote:
View Post
Who cares?

Tom
The amount of money needed for you to run your bikes is depending on these issues
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank EdwinNL for this useful post:
  #7  
Old 23.04.2019, 06:16
slammer's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Lummerland
Posts: 4,695
Groaned at 117 Times in 82 Posts
Thanked 7,888 Times in 2,949 Posts
slammer has a reputation beyond reputeslammer has a reputation beyond reputeslammer has a reputation beyond reputeslammer has a reputation beyond reputeslammer has a reputation beyond reputeslammer has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Price of petrol/gasoline

Quote:
View Post
Euh...

Qatar, Iraq, Kuwait and Bahrain are 100% dependent on that strait, UAE and Saudi Arabia are largely depending on it.

World economy simply can't do without that strait being open. So Iran is going to close nothing. Truth is that if needed tankers will get military escort and if Iran attacks retaliations will be so huge that they either stop attacking and allow access again or risk their country going more down the drain than it has gone before in the last 100 years. Imho Iran is big mouthing but not stupid enough to pull these threats all the way to the end and other countries know this. They simply can't effort to do so. And even if they would we'll make them change their mind.
Yes, but then you get the "oh sod it" factor where Iran has no lever left than to shut the straits. From a strategic point they are too narrow for a deep water navy like the US to operate and casualties will be high.
In fact the US navy is a toothless tiger in this game as seen in "Millenium Challenge 2002"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank slammer for this useful post:
  #8  
Old 23.04.2019, 13:30
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: Leimbach, Zürich
Posts: 5,032
Groaned at 294 Times in 231 Posts
Thanked 5,454 Times in 2,770 Posts
EdwinNL has a reputation beyond reputeEdwinNL has a reputation beyond reputeEdwinNL has a reputation beyond reputeEdwinNL has a reputation beyond reputeEdwinNL has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Price of petrol/gasoline

Quote:
View Post
Yes, but then you get the "oh sod it" factor where Iran has no lever left than to shut the straits. From a strategic point they are too narrow for a deep water navy like the US to operate and casualties will be high.
In fact the US navy is a toothless tiger in this game as seen in "Millenium Challenge 2002"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002
Fact stays that to much is depending on that strait being open, and why would the US have to act alone?
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 23.04.2019, 14:10
slammer's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Lummerland
Posts: 4,695
Groaned at 117 Times in 82 Posts
Thanked 7,888 Times in 2,949 Posts
slammer has a reputation beyond reputeslammer has a reputation beyond reputeslammer has a reputation beyond reputeslammer has a reputation beyond reputeslammer has a reputation beyond reputeslammer has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Price of petrol/gasoline

Quote:
View Post
Fact stays that to much is depending on that strait being open, and why would the US have to act alone?
It has to stay open only the US can´t guarantee this, perhaps if the US could get it´s war-boner to stay down they could play nice and it will blow over.
It´s interesting to read up on the so-called "Tanker war" from 1984 to 1988 to see just how easy it is to totally seal off the entire gulf region using low-tech devices.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 23.04.2019, 14:20
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: Leimbach, Zürich
Posts: 5,032
Groaned at 294 Times in 231 Posts
Thanked 5,454 Times in 2,770 Posts
EdwinNL has a reputation beyond reputeEdwinNL has a reputation beyond reputeEdwinNL has a reputation beyond reputeEdwinNL has a reputation beyond reputeEdwinNL has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Price of petrol/gasoline

Quote:
View Post
It has to stay open only the US can´t guarantee this, perhaps if the US could get it´s war-boner to stay down they could play nice and it will blow over.
It´s interesting to read up on the so-called "Tanker war" from 1984 to 1988 to see just how easy it is to totally seal off the entire gulf region using low-tech devices.
Again: The US does not have to guarantee this on its own.

Closing that strait would fully interrupt all international trade over water for Qatar, Iraq, Kuwait and Bahrain and thus hit their economie incredible hard and most of such trade for UAE and SA, not to mention the effects on the countries that are dependent of deliveries from those countries. And then there is the amount of countries that would cheer if this Iranian regime would fall.

Last edited by EdwinNL; 23.04.2019 at 15:09.
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 23.04.2019, 15:17
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Nyon
Posts: 1,472
Groaned at 56 Times in 38 Posts
Thanked 1,344 Times in 687 Posts
bowlie has a reputation beyond reputebowlie has a reputation beyond reputebowlie has a reputation beyond reputebowlie has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Price of petrol/gasoline

I suspect any threat would result in insurance companies putting the straights off limits. So a military escort is meaningless. No ship will sail without insurance.

10s of millions at risk, and that is just the cargo on one tanker.
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 23.04.2019, 15:25
slammer's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Lummerland
Posts: 4,695
Groaned at 117 Times in 82 Posts
Thanked 7,888 Times in 2,949 Posts
slammer has a reputation beyond reputeslammer has a reputation beyond reputeslammer has a reputation beyond reputeslammer has a reputation beyond reputeslammer has a reputation beyond reputeslammer has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Price of petrol/gasoline

Quote:
View Post
Again: The US does not have to guarantee this on its own.

Closing that strait would fully interrupt all international trade over water for Qatar, Iraq, Kuwait and Bahrain and thus hit their economie incredible hard and most of such trade for UAE and SA, not to mention the effects on the countries that are dependent of deliveries from those countries. And then there is the amount of countries that would cheer if this Iranian regime would fall.
I agree with you there, but even if the whole world ganged up on Iran it would not be able to stop Iran closing the straits. it´s only 25 miles wide and totally dominated by the Iranian military on Larak island.
If or when the first tankers go down in flames trade in the gulf will simply cease to happen. That is the major ace in Tehran´s sleeve, nobody will be willing to run the gauntlet and send ships into de-facto Iranian controlled waters.
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 23.04.2019, 15:26
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: Leimbach, Zürich
Posts: 5,032
Groaned at 294 Times in 231 Posts
Thanked 5,454 Times in 2,770 Posts
EdwinNL has a reputation beyond reputeEdwinNL has a reputation beyond reputeEdwinNL has a reputation beyond reputeEdwinNL has a reputation beyond reputeEdwinNL has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Price of petrol/gasoline

Quote:
View Post
I suspect any threat would result in insurance companies putting the straights off limits. So a military escort is meaningless. No ship will sail without insurance.

10s of millions at risk, and that is just the cargo on one tanker.
Tens or even hundreds of millions is a meaningless amount compared to the economical damage a closed strait would cause. Iraq alone already exports around 60 Billions of petrol a year.

I don't see how you can believe they are capable of closing that strait, if needed we'd bomb that whole damn country to keep the strait open. A closure can only be temporary and will last no longer than it takes to get the country on its knees.
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 23.04.2019, 15:28
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: Leimbach, Zürich
Posts: 5,032
Groaned at 294 Times in 231 Posts
Thanked 5,454 Times in 2,770 Posts
EdwinNL has a reputation beyond reputeEdwinNL has a reputation beyond reputeEdwinNL has a reputation beyond reputeEdwinNL has a reputation beyond reputeEdwinNL has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Price of petrol/gasoline

Quote:
View Post
I agree with you there, but even if the whole world ganged up on Iran it would not be able to stop Iran closing the straits. it´s only 25 miles wide and totally dominated by the Iranian military on Larak island.
If or when the first tankers go down in flames trade in the gulf will simply cease to happen. That is the major ace in Tehran´s sleeve, nobody will be willing to run the gauntlet and send ships into de-facto Iranian controlled waters.
It will launch a war resulting in the street to be re-opened no matter the costs. No more, no less. The interests are simply to big to let a long lasting closure happen.
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 23.04.2019, 15:44
slammer's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Lummerland
Posts: 4,695
Groaned at 117 Times in 82 Posts
Thanked 7,888 Times in 2,949 Posts
slammer has a reputation beyond reputeslammer has a reputation beyond reputeslammer has a reputation beyond reputeslammer has a reputation beyond reputeslammer has a reputation beyond reputeslammer has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Price of petrol/gasoline

Quote:
View Post
It will launch a war resulting in the street to be re-opened no matter the costs. No more, no less. The interests are simply to big to let a long lasting closure happen.
Of course it will launch a war. The Iranians close the straits, the US sends a destroyer through, destroyer gets creamed. The US starts a bombing campaign, Iran spreads pictures of horribly burnt children, bombed schools and burning hospitals around social media.
They manage to pull off being a martyr and victim to the nasty US.
World opinion turns against the US.
US has two choices, say sorry and retreats, or escalate the bombing.
Guess which one they choose.
Iran intensifies the proxy war in Jemen, thousands starve to death.
All in all misery for the entire world.
Then the big question...
Nukes do they have them or not?
If not then the US becomes a pariha and Tehran pulls of the biggest PR stunt in history, remember that the nukes are the reason for US sanctions.
If they have them and use them... then nukefeast in arabia.
But I don´t think that they have nukes, the mullah´s are far too smart to risk it and that they are playing the US like a fiddle.
__________________
Lummerland
Eine Insel mit zwei Bergen,
und im tiefen weiten Meer,
mit viel Tunnels und Geleisen
und dem Eisenbahnverkehr
nun wie mag die Insel heißen
ringsherum ist schöner Strand
jeder sollte einmal reisen
in das schöne Lummerland
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users would like to thank slammer for this useful post:
  #16  
Old 23.04.2019, 15:53
Today only's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Europe
Posts: 7,044
Groaned at 773 Times in 528 Posts
Thanked 8,661 Times in 4,088 Posts
Today only has a reputation beyond reputeToday only has a reputation beyond reputeToday only has a reputation beyond reputeToday only has a reputation beyond reputeToday only has a reputation beyond reputeToday only has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Price of petrol/gasoline

It all depends on how China decides to react
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 23.04.2019, 15:58
slammer's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Lummerland
Posts: 4,695
Groaned at 117 Times in 82 Posts
Thanked 7,888 Times in 2,949 Posts
slammer has a reputation beyond reputeslammer has a reputation beyond reputeslammer has a reputation beyond reputeslammer has a reputation beyond reputeslammer has a reputation beyond reputeslammer has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Price of petrol/gasoline

Quote:
View Post
It all depends on how China decides to react
China will take one look and say: "Nope, biiiig bag of Nope!"
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 23.04.2019, 16:05
Today only's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Europe
Posts: 7,044
Groaned at 773 Times in 528 Posts
Thanked 8,661 Times in 4,088 Posts
Today only has a reputation beyond reputeToday only has a reputation beyond reputeToday only has a reputation beyond reputeToday only has a reputation beyond reputeToday only has a reputation beyond reputeToday only has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Price of petrol/gasoline

Quote:
View Post
China will take one look and say: "Nope, biiiig bag of Nope!"

I doubt it very much, China buys a lot of Iranian oil, cheaply, and they certainly won't be beholden to an arbitrary American dictate.


They may decide to abide with it, but equally so, they may decide to carry on and in this case not too sure what the Americans can and would do to stop it.


It's not really an open and shut question, maybe the Chinese will agree t0 abide by the sanction if the Americans become a little more reasonable on a trade deal....
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 23.04.2019, 16:07
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: Leimbach, Zürich
Posts: 5,032
Groaned at 294 Times in 231 Posts
Thanked 5,454 Times in 2,770 Posts
EdwinNL has a reputation beyond reputeEdwinNL has a reputation beyond reputeEdwinNL has a reputation beyond reputeEdwinNL has a reputation beyond reputeEdwinNL has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Price of petrol/gasoline

Quote:
View Post
Of course it will launch a war. The Iranians close the straits, the US sends a destroyer through, destroyer gets creamed. The US starts a bombing campaign, Iran spreads pictures of horribly burnt children, bombed schools and burning hospitals around social media.
They manage to pull off being a martyr and victim to the nasty US.
World opinion turns against the US.
US has two choices, say sorry and retreats, or escalate the bombing.
Guess which one they choose.
Iran intensifies the proxy war in Jemen, thousands starve to death.
All in all misery for the entire world.
Then the big question...
Nukes do they have them or not?
If not then the US becomes a pariha and Tehran pulls of the biggest PR stunt in history, remember that the nukes are the reason for US sanctions.
If they have them and use them... then nukefeast in arabia.
But I don´t think that they have nukes, the mullah´s are far too smart to risk it and that they are playing the US like a fiddle.
What makes people think that America will have to act alone in this?
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 23.04.2019, 16:16
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: Leimbach, Zürich
Posts: 5,032
Groaned at 294 Times in 231 Posts
Thanked 5,454 Times in 2,770 Posts
EdwinNL has a reputation beyond reputeEdwinNL has a reputation beyond reputeEdwinNL has a reputation beyond reputeEdwinNL has a reputation beyond reputeEdwinNL has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Price of petrol/gasoline

Quote:
View Post
I doubt it very much, China buys a lot of Iranian oil, cheaply, and they certainly won't be beholden to an arbitrary American dictate.


They may decide to abide with it, but equally so, they may decide to carry on and in this case not too sure what the Americans can and would do to stop it.


It's not really an open and shut question, maybe the Chinese will agree t0 abide by the sanction if the Americans become a little more reasonable on a trade deal....
Only 6% of China's oil comes from Iran, they will imho cut down on this amount to please the Americans since to the Chinese securing a trade agreement with America must be more important. Whatever happens at that strait, China will stay out of it. Russia sees the price of its own oil rise and thus benefits from things going wrong over there and also will stay out of it.

Iran only has a few "friends" and those are either to meaningless to be of importance (Algeria for example) or they are way to busy handling their own shit (like Venezuela and Zimbabwe for example, and let's be honest, who cares what such countries think of this)
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank EdwinNL for this useful post:
Reply




Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Dispose of bad gasoline Vegas005 Transportation/driving 6 10.06.2018 12:40
How to dispose of old gasoline and solvents? Rjellsch Daily life 15 01.04.2017 23:43
Petrol/Diesel - price on display v pump price - any laws? Medea Fleecestealer Transportation/driving 21 23.01.2016 14:44
Price of Petrol? Fish&Chips Transportation/driving 7 22.02.2012 18:17
Gasoline Price in Switzerland alr7al Transportation/driving 10 21.01.2009 11:55


All times are GMT +2. The time now is 08:32.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
LinkBacks Enabled by vBSEO 3.1.0